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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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← All matchdays

Saturday 11 July

Recap

1 match · Quarter-finals

← Friday 10 JulySunday 12 July →

Briefing

Generated from the model's published runs

Headline

England beat Norway 2-1, a win the model had at 50%.

Result recap

vs the pre-matchday run
  • Norway1–2EnglandCalled itEngland 49.9%

Biggest movers

champion odds, percentage points
Risers
  • Spain+67.9 pts
Fallers
  • France−23.3 pts
  • Argentina−20.5 pts
  • England−14.4 pts

What the model is watching

next matchday: Sunday 12 July
  • Argentina vs Switzerlandodds pending

Scheduled matches

Times in your local timezone
Sat 11 Jul, 21:00 UTC· Miami GardensFinalQuarter-finals
Norway

1–2

England
NOR
1–2
ENGFT