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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

  • Forecast
  • Matches
  • Groups
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← All matchdays

Friday 10 July

Recap

1 match · Quarter-finals

← Thursday 9 JulySaturday 11 July →

Briefing

Generated from the model's published runs

Headline

Spain beat Belgium 2-1, a win the model had at 51%.

Result recap

vs the pre-matchday run
  • Spain2–1BelgiumCalled itSpain 50.9%

Biggest movers

champion odds, percentage points
Risers
  • Spain+79.7 pts
Fallers
  • France−25.7 pts
  • Argentina−21.4 pts
  • England−15.0 pts

What the model is watching

next matchday: Saturday 11 July
  • Norway vs Englandodds pending

Scheduled matches

Times in your local timezone
Fri 10 Jul, 19:00 UTC· InglewoodFinalQuarter-finals
Spain

2–1

Belgium
ESP
2–1
BELFT