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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

  • Forecast
  • Matches
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← All matchdays

Thursday 9 July

Recap

1 match · Quarter-finals

← Wednesday 8 JulyFriday 10 July →

Briefing

Generated from the model's published runs

Headline

France beat Morocco 2-0, a win the model had at 41%.

Result recap

vs the pre-matchday run
  • France2–0MoroccoCalled itFrance 40.8%

Biggest movers

champion odds, percentage points
Risers
  • Spain+78.6 pts
Fallers
  • Argentina−21.9 pts
  • England−15.4 pts
  • France−14.5 pts

What the model is watching

next matchday: Friday 10 July
  • Spain vs Belgiumodds pending

Scheduled matches

Times in your local timezone
Thu 9 Jul, 20:00 UTC· FoxboroughFinalQuarter-finals
France

2–0

Morocco
FRA
2–0
MARFT