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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

  • Forecast
  • Matches
  • Groups
  • Predict
  • Players
← All matchdays

Saturday 18 July

Recap

1 match · Third-place play-off

← Friday 17 JulySunday 19 July →

Briefing

Generated from the model's published runs

Headline

Upset: England beat France 6-4. The model had England at just 34%.

Result recap

vs the pre-matchday run
  • France4–6EnglandMissedhad France at 36.7%

Biggest movers

champion odds, percentage points
Risers
  • Spain+49.7 pts
Fallers
  • Argentina−49.7 pts

What the model is watching

next matchday: Sunday 19 July
  • Spain vs Argentinaodds pending

Scheduled matches

Times in your local timezone
Sat 18 Jul, 21:00 UTC· Miami GardensFinalThird-place play-off
France

4–6

England
FRA
4–6
ENGFT