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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

  • Forecast
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← All matchdays

Saturday 27 June

Recap

8 matches · Group stage

← Friday 26 JuneSunday 28 June →

Briefing

Generated from the model's published runs

Headline

Colombia and Portugal drew 0-0. The model gave the draw 28%.

Result recap

vs the pre-matchday run
  • Cape Verde0–0Saudi ArabiaMissedhad Saudi Arabia at 37.0%
  • Uruguay0–1SpainCalled itSpain 44.5%
  • Egypt1–1IranMissedhad Iran at 40.2%
  • New Zealand1–5BelgiumCalled itBelgium 54.2%
  • Panama0–2EnglandCalled itEngland 56.1%
  • Croatia2–1GhanaCalled itCroatia 55.3%
  • Colombia0–0PortugalMissedhad Portugal at 38.4%
  • DR Congo3–1UzbekistanMissedhad Uzbekistan at 35.8%

Biggest movers

champion odds, percentage points
Risers
  • Spain+88.6 pts
Fallers
  • Argentina−10.9 pts
  • France−7.8 pts
  • Brazil−7.3 pts

What the model is watching

next matchday: Sunday 28 June
  • Algeria vs Austriaodds pending
  • Jordan vs Argentinaodds pending
  • South Africa vs Canadaodds pending

Scheduled matches

Times in your local timezone
Sat 27 Jun, 00:00 UTC· HoustonFinalGroup H
Cape Verde

0–0

Saudi Arabia
CPV
0–0
KSAFT
Sat 27 Jun, 00:00 UTC· ZapopanFinal
Group H
Uruguay

0–1

Spain
URU
0–1
ESPFT
Sat 27 Jun, 03:00 UTC· SeattleFinalGroup G
Egypt

1–1

Iran
EGY
1–1
IRNFT
Sat 27 Jun, 03:00 UTC· VancouverFinalGroup G
New Zealand

1–5

Belgium
NZL
1–5
BELFT
Sat 27 Jun, 21:00 UTC· East RutherfordFinalGroup L
Panama

0–2

England
PAN
0–2
ENGFT
Sat 27 Jun, 21:00 UTC· PhiladelphiaFinalGroup L
Croatia

2–1

Ghana
CRO
2–1
GHAFT
Sat 27 Jun, 23:30 UTC· Miami GardensFinalGroup K
Colombia

0–0

Portugal
COL
0–0
PORFT
Sat 27 Jun, 23:30 UTC· AtlantaFinalGroup K
DR Congo

3–1

Uzbekistan
COD
3–1
UZBFT