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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Round of 32 · Match 78

Ivory CoastvsNorway

1 – 2Full time

Tue 30 Jun, 17:00 UTC your time · Tue 30 Jun, 12:00 GMT-5 at the venue

AT&T Stadium, Arlington, United States

Final result

full time
Ivory Coast1 – 2Norway

Norway advance

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Ivory Coast

none

Norway
  • Antonio Nusagoal
  • Erling Haalandgoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
31.5% Ivory Coast28.7% draw39.9% Norway

Expected goals 1.09 – 1.26

Rating

What's driving this: Norway have a moderate rating edge (+81 Elo).

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Ivory Coast31.5%draw28.7%Norway39.9%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Ivory Coast 1791.2 · Norway 1872.2
    Norway +81 · moderate
  • FIFA ranking
    Ivory Coast #34 · Norway #31
  • Recent form
    Ivory Coast 4W-1D-1L · Norway 6W-0D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    13.5%
  • 0-1
    11.6%
  • 1-0
    10.0%
  • 0-0
    9.9%
  • 1-2
    8.3%
  • 0-2
    7.6%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Ivory Coast
LWWDWW
Norway
WWWWWW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 50%Possession50%
  • 9Shots3
  • 4On target2
  • 5Corners1
  • 5Fouls3
  • 2Offsides1
  • 0Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings

No previous meetings on record.