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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group E · Match 33

GermanyvsIvory Coast

2 – 1Full time

Sat 20 Jun, 20:00 UTC your time · Sat 20 Jun, 16:00 GMT-4 at the venue

BMO Field, Toronto, Canada

Final result

full time
Germany2 – 1Ivory Coast

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Germany
  • Deniz Undav2 goals
Ivory Coast

none

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
50.5% Germany25.5% draw24.1% Ivory Coast

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.05

Rating

What's driving this: Germany hold a decisive rating edge: +186 Elo over Ivory Coast.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Germany50.5%draw25.5%Ivory Coast24.1%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Germany 1977.2 · Ivory Coast 1791.2
    Germany +186 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Germany #10 · Ivory Coast #34
  • Recent form
    Germany 5W-0D-1L · Ivory Coast 4W-1D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    12.1%
  • 1-0
    10.9%
  • 2-1
    9.6%
  • 2-0
    9.1%
  • 0-0
    7.3%
  • 0-1
    6.9%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Germany
WWWWWL
Ivory Coast
LWWDWW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 58%Possession42%
  • 8Shots5
  • 5On target0
  • 5Corners2
  • 3Fouls4
  • 0Offsides0
  • 0Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
0 Germany1 draw0 Ivory Coast

1 meetings · goals 2–2

  • 2009-11-18friendly2–2draw