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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group E · Match 9

Ivory CoastvsEcuador

1 – 0Full time

Sun 14 Jun, 23:00 UTC your time · Sun 14 Jun, 19:00 GMT-4 at the venue

Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, United States

Final result

full time
Ivory Coast1 – 0Ecuador

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
28.6% Ivory Coast32.6% draw38.8% Ecuador

Expected goals 0.85 – 1.04

Rating

What's driving this: Ecuador have a moderate rating edge (+128 Elo).

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Ivory Coast28.6%draw32.6%Ecuador38.8%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Ivory Coast 1791.2 · Ecuador 1918.7
    Ecuador +128 · moderate
  • FIFA ranking
    Ivory Coast #34 · Ecuador #23
  • Recent form
    Ivory Coast 4W-1D-1L · Ecuador 2W-4D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 0-0
    15.6%
  • 0-1
    15.3%
  • 1-1
    13.8%
  • 1-0
    12.5%
  • 0-2
    8.2%
  • 1-2
    6.9%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Ivory Coast
LWWDWW
Ecuador
WDDDDW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 52%Possession48%
  • 9Shots6
  • 3On target1
  • 1Corners5
  • 2Fouls10
  • 0Offsides0
  • 0Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings

No previous meetings on record.