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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Final · Match 104

SpainvsArgentina

1 – 0Full time

Sun 19 Jul, 19:00 UTC your time · Sun 19 Jul, 15:00 GMT-4 at the venue

MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, United States

Final result

full time
Spain1 – 0Argentina

Spain advance

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Spain
  • Ferran Torresgoal
Argentina

none

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
36.6% Spain28.2% draw35.2% Argentina

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.21

Even

What's driving this: The model rates these sides near-level, closer to a coin-flip.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Spain36.6%draw28.2%Argentina35.2%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Spain 2156.1 · Argentina 2144.7
    Spain +11 · negligible
  • FIFA ranking
    Spain #2 · Argentina #3
  • Recent form
    Spain 5W-1D-0L · Argentina 4W-1D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    13.4%
  • 1-0
    10.4%
  • 0-1
    10.1%
  • 0-0
    9.1%
  • 2-1
    8.0%
  • 1-2
    7.8%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Spain
DWWWWW
Argentina
LWDWWW

Head to head

historical meetings
6 Spain2 draw6 Argentina

14 meetings · goals 19–18

  • 2018-03-27friendly6–1Spain
  • 2010-09-07friendly1–4Argentina
  • 2009-11-14friendly2–1Spain
  • 2006-10-11friendly2–1Spain
  • 1999-11-17friendly0–2Argentina