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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Third-place playoff · Match 103

FrancevsEngland

4 – 6Full time

Sat 18 Jul, 21:00 UTC your time · Sat 18 Jul, 17:00 GMT-4 at the venue

Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, United States

Final result

full time
France4 – 6England

England advance

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
France
  • Kylian Mbappé2 goals
  • Bradley Barcolagoal
  • Ousmane Dembélégoal
England
  • Bukayo Saka3 goals
  • Declan Ricegoal
  • Ezri Konsagoal
  • Jude Bellinghamgoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
36.7% France29.1% draw34.3% England

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.13

Rating

What's driving this: France have a slight rating edge (+59 Elo).

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    France 2095 · England 2035.8
    France +59 · slight
  • FIFA ranking
    France #1 · England #4
  • Recent form
    France 5W-1D-0L · England 6W-0D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    13.6%
  • 1-0
    11.2%
  • 0-1
    10.8%
  • 0-0
    10.3%
  • 2-1
    7.8%
  • 1-2
    7.5%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
France
WWDWWW
England
WWWWWW

Head to head

historical meetings
11 France6 draw17 England

34 meetings · goals 45–75

  • 2022-12-10wc finals2–1France
  • 2017-06-13friendly3–2France
  • 2015-11-17friendly0–2England
  • 2012-06-11continental finals1–1draw
  • 2010-11-17friendly2–1France