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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Semi-final · Match 102

EnglandvsArgentina

1 – 2Full time

Wed 15 Jul, 19:00 UTC your time · Wed 15 Jul, 15:00 GMT-4 at the venue

Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, United States

Final result

full time
England1 – 2Argentina

Argentina advance

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
England
  • Anthony Gordongoal
Argentina
  • Enzo Fernándezgoal
  • Lautaro Martínezgoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
29.1% England30.5% draw40.4% Argentina

Expected goals 0.94 – 1.16

Rating

What's driving this: Argentina have a moderate rating edge (+109 Elo).

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
England29.1%draw30.5%Argentina40.4%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    England 2035.8 · Argentina 2144.7
    Argentina +109 · moderate
  • FIFA ranking
    England #4 · Argentina #3
  • Recent form
    England 6W-0D-0L · Argentina 4W-1D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    13.8%
  • 0-1
    13.8%
  • 0-0
    12.6%
  • 1-0
    11.1%
  • 0-2
    8.3%
  • 1-2
    7.8%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
England
WWWWWW
Argentina
LWDWWW

Head to head

historical meetings
6 England6 draw3 Argentina

15 meetings · goals 22–18

  • 2005-11-12friendly3–2England
  • 2002-06-07wc finals1–0England
  • 2000-02-23friendly0–0draw
  • 1998-06-30wc finals2–2draw
  • 1991-05-25friendly2–2draw