PresairaPresairaWorld Cup 2026
ForecastMatchesGroupsPredictPlayers

An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

  • Forecast
  • Matches
  • Groups
  • Predict
  • Players
Semi-final · Match 101

FrancevsSpain

0 – 2Full time

Tue 14 Jul, 19:00 UTC your time · Tue 14 Jul, 14:00 GMT-5 at the venue

AT&T Stadium, Arlington, United States

Final result

full time
France0 – 2Spain

Spain advance

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
France

none

Spain
  • Mikel Oyarzabalgoal
  • Pedro Porrogoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
30.6% France27.5% draw41.8% Spain

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.37

Rating

What's driving this: Spain have a slight rating edge (+61 Elo).

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
France30.6%draw27.5%Spain41.8%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    France 2095 · Spain 2156.1
    Spain +61 · slight
  • FIFA ranking
    France #1 · Spain #2
  • Recent form
    France 5W-1D-0L · Spain 5W-1D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    13.1%
  • 0-1
    10.8%
  • 1-0
    8.9%
  • 1-2
    8.7%
  • 0-0
    8.6%
  • 0-2
    7.7%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
France
WWDWWW
Spain
DWWWWW

Head to head

historical meetings
13 France7 draw18 Spain

38 meetings · goals 44–71

  • 2025-06-05nations league4–5Spain
  • 2024-07-09continental finals1–2Spain
  • 2021-10-10nations league2–1France
  • 2017-03-28friendly0–2Spain
  • 2014-09-04friendly1–0France