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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Quarter-final · Match 100

ArgentinavsSwitzerland

3 – 1Full time

Sun 12 Jul, 01:00 UTC your time · Sat 11 Jul, 20:00 GMT-5 at the venue

Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, United States

Final result

full time
Argentina3 – 1Switzerland

Argentina advance

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Argentina
  • Alexis Mac Allistergoal
  • Julián Álvarezgoal
  • Lautaro Martínezgoal
Switzerland
  • Dan Ndoyegoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
52.5% Argentina26.8% draw20.7% Switzerland

Expected goals 1.51 – 0.85

Rating

What's driving this: Argentina hold a decisive rating edge: +228 Elo over Switzerland.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Argentina52.5%draw26.8%Switzerland20.7%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Argentina 2144.7 · Switzerland 1916.3
    Argentina +228 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Argentina #3 · Switzerland #19
  • Recent form
    Argentina 4W-1D-1L · Switzerland 4W-2D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-0
    13.9%
  • 1-1
    12.5%
  • 2-0
    10.8%
  • 0-0
    9.8%
  • 2-1
    9.2%
  • 0-1
    7.6%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Argentina
LWDWWW
Switzerland
DWDWWW

Head to head

historical meetings
5 Argentina2 draw0 Switzerland

7 meetings · goals 15–3

  • 2014-07-01wc finals1–0Argentina
  • 2012-02-29friendly3–1Argentina
  • 2007-06-02friendly1–1draw
  • 1990-05-08friendly1–1draw
  • 1984-09-01friendly2–0Argentina