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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Quarter-final · Match 99

NorwayvsEngland

1 – 2Full time

Sat 11 Jul, 21:00 UTC your time · Sat 11 Jul, 17:00 GMT-4 at the venue

Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, United States

Final result

full time
Norway1 – 2England

England advance

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Norway
  • Andreas Schjelderupgoal
England
  • Jude Bellingham2 goals

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
23.9% Norway26.2% draw49.9% England

Expected goals 1.00 – 1.56

Rating

What's driving this: England hold a decisive rating edge: +164 Elo over Norway.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Norway23.9%draw26.2%England49.9%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Norway 1872.2 · England 2035.8
    England +164 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Norway #31 · England #4
  • Recent form
    Norway 6W-0D-0L · England 6W-0D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    12.4%
  • 0-1
    11.7%
  • 0-2
    9.4%
  • 1-2
    9.4%
  • 0-0
    8.2%
  • 1-0
    7.4%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Norway
WWWWWW
England
WWWWWW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 73%Possession27%
  • 3Shots3
  • 0On target3
  • 1Corners0
  • 1Fouls3
  • 1Offsides1
  • 1Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
2 Norway3 draw7 England

12 meetings · goals 7–28

  • 2014-09-03friendly0–1England
  • 2012-05-26friendly0–1England
  • 1995-10-11friendly0–0draw
  • 1994-05-22friendly0–0draw
  • 1993-06-02wc qualifier2–0Norway