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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Quarter-final · Match 98

SpainvsBelgium

2 – 1Full time

Fri 10 Jul, 19:00 UTC your time · Fri 10 Jul, 12:00 GMT-7 at the venue

SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, United States

Final result

full time
Spain2 – 1Belgium

Spain advance

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Spain
  • Fabián Ruizgoal
  • Mikel Merinogoal
Belgium
  • Charles De Ketelaeregoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
50.9% Spain24.6% draw24.6% Belgium

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.12

Rating

What's driving this: Spain hold a decisive rating edge: +211 Elo over Belgium.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Spain50.9%draw24.6%Belgium24.6%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Spain 2156.1 · Belgium 1945.6
    Spain +211 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Spain #2 · Belgium #9
  • Recent form
    Spain 5W-1D-0L · Belgium 4W-2D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    11.6%
  • 1-0
    9.7%
  • 2-1
    9.7%
  • 2-0
    8.6%
  • 1-2
    6.3%
  • 0-1
    6.2%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Spain
DWWWWW
Belgium
WDWDWW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 74%Possession26%
  • 8Shots3
  • 5On target1
  • 2Corners1
  • 7Fouls12
  • 2Offsides0
  • 1Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
11 Spain6 draw5 Belgium

22 meetings · goals 44–22

  • 2016-09-01friendly2–0Spain
  • 2009-09-05wc qualifier5–0Spain
  • 2008-10-15wc qualifier2–1Spain
  • 2005-10-08wc qualifier2–0Spain
  • 2004-10-09wc qualifier2–0Spain