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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Quarter-final · Match 97

FrancevsMorocco

2 – 0Full time

Thu 9 Jul, 20:00 UTC your time · Thu 9 Jul, 16:00 GMT-4 at the venue

Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, United States

Final result

full time
France2 – 0Morocco

France advance

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
France
  • Kylian Mbappégoal
  • Ousmane Dembélégoal
Morocco

none

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
40.8% France31.5% draw27.7% Morocco

Expected goals 1.12 – 0.87

Rating

What's driving this: France have a moderate rating edge (+146 Elo).

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
France40.8%draw31.5%Morocco27.7%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    France 2095 · Morocco 1948.7
    France +146 · moderate
  • FIFA ranking
    France #1 · Morocco #8
  • Recent form
    France 5W-1D-0L · Morocco 4W-2D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-0
    14.9%
  • 0-0
    14.1%
  • 1-1
    13.7%
  • 0-1
    11.5%
  • 2-0
    8.6%
  • 2-1
    7.4%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
France
WWDWWW
Morocco
WDWWWD

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 47%Possession53%
  • 9Shots4
  • 5On target1
  • 2Corners4
  • 4Fouls7
  • 0Offsides0
  • 0Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
4 France2 draw0 Morocco

6 meetings · goals 14–6

  • 2022-12-14wc finals2–0France
  • 2007-11-16friendly2–2draw
  • 2000-06-06minor tournament5–1France
  • 1999-01-20friendly1–0France
  • 1998-05-29minor tournament2–2draw