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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Round of 16 · Match 96

SwitzerlandvsColombia

0 – 0Full time

Tue 7 Jul, 20:00 UTC your time · Tue 7 Jul, 13:00 GMT-7 at the venue

BC Place, Vancouver, Canada

Final result

full time
Switzerland0 – 0Colombia

Switzerland advance on penalties (4–3)

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
30.3% Switzerland28.2% draw41.5% Colombia

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.32

Rating

What's driving this: Colombia have a slight rating edge (+70 Elo).

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Switzerland30.3%draw28.2%Colombia41.5%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Switzerland 1916.3 · Colombia 1985.9
    Colombia +70 · slight
  • FIFA ranking
    Switzerland #19 · Colombia #13
  • Recent form
    Switzerland 4W-2D-0L · Colombia 2W-3D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    13.3%
  • 0-1
    11.5%
  • 0-0
    9.4%
  • 1-0
    9.4%
  • 1-2
    8.5%
  • 0-2
    7.8%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Switzerland
DWDWWW
Colombia
WWDDDL

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 62%Possession38%
  • 1Shots3
  • 0On target0
  • 0Corners0
  • 6Fouls1
  • 0Offsides0
  • 0Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
1 Switzerland1 draw2 Colombia

4 meetings · goals 6–9

  • 2007-03-25friendly1–3Colombia
  • 1994-06-26wc finals0–2Colombia
  • 1991-02-03minor tournament3–2Switzerland
  • 1985-02-01friendly2–2draw