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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Round of 16 · Match 95

ArgentinavsEgypt

3 – 2Full time

Tue 7 Jul, 16:00 UTC your time · Tue 7 Jul, 12:00 GMT-4 at the venue

Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, United States

Final result

full time
Argentina3 – 2Egypt

Argentina advance

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Argentina
  • Cristian Romerogoal
  • Enzo Fernándezgoal
  • Lionel Messigoal
Egypt
  • Mostafa Zikogoal
  • Yasser Ibrahimgoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
55.3% Argentina28.6% draw16.2% Egypt

Expected goals 1.38 – 0.61

Rating

What's driving this: Argentina hold a decisive rating edge: +347 Elo over Egypt.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Argentina55.3%draw28.6%Egypt16.2%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Argentina 2144.7 · Egypt 1798.2
    Argentina +347 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Argentina #3 · Egypt #29
  • Recent form
    Argentina 4W-1D-1L · Egypt 3W-2D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-0
    18.4%
  • 0-0
    14.0%
  • 2-0
    13.0%
  • 1-1
    11.9%
  • 0-1
    8.0%
  • 2-1
    8.0%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Argentina
LWDWWW
Egypt
DLWWDW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 68%Possession32%
  • 12Shots3
  • 4On target1
  • 5Corners0
  • 5Fouls6
  • 1Offsides0
  • 0Yellow cards4
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
2 Argentina0 draw0 Egypt

2 meetings · goals 8–0

  • 2008-03-26friendly2–0Argentina
  • 1928-06-06minor tournament6–0Argentina