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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Round of 16 · Match 94

United StatesvsBelgium

1 – 4Full time

Tue 7 Jul, 00:00 UTC your time · Mon 6 Jul, 17:00 GMT-7 at the venue

Lumen Field, Seattle, United States

Final result

full time
United States1 – 4Belgium

Belgium advance

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
United States
  • Malik Tillmangoal
Belgium
  • Charles De Ketelaere2 goals
  • Hans Vanakengoal
  • Romelu Lukakugoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
34.4% United States25.5% draw40.1% Belgium

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.51

Rating

What's driving this: Belgium have a moderate rating edge (+120 Elo).

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
United States34.4%draw25.5%Belgium40.1%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    United States 1825.2 · Belgium 1945.6
    Belgium +120 · moderate
  • FIFA ranking
    United States #16 · Belgium #9
  • Host advantage
    United States playing on home soil
    +0.20 goal rate
  • Recent form
    United States 4W-1D-1L · Belgium 4W-2D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    11.9%
  • 1-2
    8.7%
  • 0-1
    8.0%
  • 2-1
    8.0%
  • 1-0
    7.3%
  • 0-2
    6.3%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
United States
LWDWWW
Belgium
WDWDWW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 64%Possession36%
  • 4Shots4
  • 1On target2
  • 2Corners2
  • 6Fouls5
  • 0Offsides0
  • 1Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
1 United States0 draw7 Belgium

8 meetings · goals 8–22

  • 2026-03-28friendly2–5Belgium
  • 2014-07-01wc finals1–2Belgium
  • 2013-05-29friendly2–4Belgium
  • 2011-09-06friendly0–1Belgium
  • 1998-02-25friendly0–2Belgium