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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Round of 16 · Match 93

PortugalvsSpain

0 – 1Full time

Mon 6 Jul, 19:00 UTC your time · Mon 6 Jul, 14:00 GMT-5 at the venue

AT&T Stadium, Arlington, United States

Final result

full time
Portugal0 – 1Spain

Spain advance

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Portugal

none

Spain
  • Mikel Merinogoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
27.1% Portugal25.5% draw47.4% Spain

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.60

Rating

What's driving this: Spain hold a decisive rating edge: +167 Elo over Portugal.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Portugal27.1%draw25.5%Spain47.4%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Portugal 1989.2 · Spain 2156.1
    Spain +167 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Portugal #5 · Spain #2
  • Recent form
    Portugal 4W-1D-1L · Spain 5W-1D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    12.1%
  • 0-1
    9.8%
  • 1-2
    9.4%
  • 0-2
    8.2%
  • 1-0
    7.0%
  • 2-1
    6.8%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Portugal
WLDWWW
Spain
DWWWWW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 44%Possession56%
  • 5Shots7
  • 0On target3
  • 0Corners5
  • 4Fouls7
  • 1Offsides0
  • 2Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
8 Portugal18 draw16 Spain

42 meetings · goals 50–78

  • 2025-06-08nations league2–2draw
  • 2022-09-27nations league0–1Spain
  • 2022-06-02nations league1–1draw
  • 2021-06-04friendly0–0draw
  • 2020-10-07friendly0–0draw