PresairaPresairaWorld Cup 2026
ForecastMatchesGroupsPredictPlayers

An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

  • Forecast
  • Matches
  • Groups
  • Predict
  • Players
Round of 16 · Match 90

CanadavsMorocco

0 – 3Full time

Sat 4 Jul, 17:00 UTC your time · Sat 4 Jul, 12:00 GMT-5 at the venue

NRG Stadium, Houston, United States

Final result

full time
Canada0 – 3Morocco

Morocco advance

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Canada

none

Morocco
  • Azzedine Ounahi2 goals
  • Soufiane Rahimigoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
27.8% Canada30.9% draw41.3% Morocco

Expected goals 0.89 – 1.15

Rating

What's driving this: Morocco have a moderate rating edge (+100 Elo).

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Canada27.8%draw30.9%Morocco41.3%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Canada 1848.6 · Morocco 1948.7
    Morocco +100 · moderate
  • FIFA ranking
    Canada #30 · Morocco #8
  • Recent form
    Canada 3W-2D-1L · Morocco 4W-2D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 0-1
    14.5%
  • 1-1
    13.7%
  • 0-0
    13.4%
  • 1-0
    11.1%
  • 0-2
    8.6%
  • 1-2
    7.7%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Canada
DWDWWL
Morocco
WDWWWD

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 57%Possession43%
  • 6Shots4
  • 1On target3
  • 6Corners1
  • 9Fouls8
  • 2Offsides1
  • 2Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
0 Canada1 draw3 Morocco

4 meetings · goals 4–10

  • 2022-12-01wc finals1–2Morocco
  • 2016-10-11friendly0–4Morocco
  • 1994-06-01friendly1–1draw
  • 1984-10-24friendly2–3Morocco