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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Round of 16 · Match 89

ParaguayvsFrance

0 – 1Full time

Sat 4 Jul, 21:00 UTC your time · Sat 4 Jul, 17:00 GMT-4 at the venue

Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, United States

Final result

full time
Paraguay0 – 1France

France advance

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Paraguay

none

France
  • Kylian Mbappégoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
19.2% Paraguay28.5% draw52.3% France

Expected goals 0.73 – 1.39

Rating

What's driving this: France hold a decisive rating edge: +252 Elo over Paraguay.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Paraguay19.2%draw28.5%France52.3%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Paraguay 1842.8 · France 2095
    France +252 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Paraguay #40 · France #1
  • Recent form
    Paraguay 3W-2D-1L · France 5W-1D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 0-1
    16.4%
  • 1-1
    12.6%
  • 0-0
    12.5%
  • 0-2
    11.6%
  • 1-2
    8.4%
  • 1-0
    8.4%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Paraguay
WDLWDW
France
WWDWWW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 29%Possession71%
  • 3Shots10
  • 0On target5
  • 2Corners5
  • 9Fouls5
  • 0Offsides0
  • 0Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
0 Paraguay2 draw3 France

5 meetings · goals 4–14

  • 2017-06-02friendly0–5France
  • 2014-06-01friendly1–1draw
  • 2008-05-31friendly0–0draw
  • 1998-06-28wc finals0–1France
  • 1958-06-08wc finals3–7France