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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Round of 32 · Match 88

AustraliavsEgypt

1 – 1Full time

Fri 3 Jul, 18:00 UTC your time · Fri 3 Jul, 13:00 GMT-5 at the venue

AT&T Stadium, Arlington, United States

Final result

full time
Australia1 – 1Egypt

Egypt advance on penalties (2–4)

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Australia
  • Mohamed HanyOG
Egypt
  • Emam Ashourgoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
38.5% Australia32.0% draw29.5% Egypt

Expected goals 1.06 – 0.89

Rating

What's driving this: Australia have a slight rating edge (+60 Elo).

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Australia38.5%draw32.0%Egypt29.5%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Australia 1858.4 · Egypt 1798.2
    Australia +60 · slight
  • FIFA ranking
    Australia #27 · Egypt #29
  • Recent form
    Australia 4W-2D-0L · Egypt 3W-2D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-0
    14.7%
  • 0-0
    14.7%
  • 1-1
    13.8%
  • 0-1
    12.3%
  • 2-0
    8.0%
  • 2-1
    7.1%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Australia
WWWWDD
Egypt
DLWWDW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 34%Possession66%
  • 4Shots2
  • 0On target0
  • 0Corners4
  • 3Fouls3
  • 0Offsides0
  • 0Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
0 Australia1 draw1 Egypt

2 meetings · goals 0–3

  • 2010-11-17friendly0–3Egypt
  • 1987-06-19minor tournament0–0draw