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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Round of 32 · Match 87

ColombiavsGhana

1 – 0Full time

Sat 4 Jul, 01:30 UTC your time · Fri 3 Jul, 20:30 GMT-5 at the venue

Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, United States

Final result

full time
Colombia1 – 0Ghana

Colombia advance

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Colombia
  • Jhon Ariasgoal
Ghana

none

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
59.5% Colombia24.8% draw15.6% Ghana

Expected goals 1.66 – 0.72

Rating

What's driving this: Colombia hold a decisive rating edge: +353 Elo over Ghana.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Colombia59.5%draw24.8%Ghana15.6%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Colombia 1985.9 · Ghana 1633.1
    Colombia +353 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Colombia #13 · Ghana #74
  • Recent form
    Colombia 2W-3D-1L · Ghana 5W-1D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-0
    15.1%
  • 2-0
    12.8%
  • 1-1
    11.4%
  • 0-0
    9.7%
  • 2-1
    9.2%
  • 3-0
    7.0%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Colombia
WWDDDL
Ghana
WWWDWW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 54%Possession46%
  • 15Shots2
  • 5On target0
  • 2Corners0
  • 8Fouls10
  • 2Offsides0
  • 1Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings

No previous meetings on record.