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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Round of 32 · Match 84

SpainvsAustria

3 – 0Full time

Thu 2 Jul, 19:00 UTC your time · Thu 2 Jul, 12:00 GMT-7 at the venue

SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, United States

Final result

full time
Spain3 – 0Austria

Spain advance

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Spain
  • Mikel Oyarzabal2 goals
  • Pedro Porrogoal
Austria

none

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
60.3% Spain22.9% draw16.8% Austria

Expected goals 1.85 – 0.86

Rating

What's driving this: Spain hold a decisive rating edge: +314 Elo over Austria.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Spain60.3%draw22.9%Austria16.8%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Spain 2156.1 · Austria 1842.2
    Spain +314 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Spain #2 · Austria #24
  • Recent form
    Spain 5W-1D-0L · Austria 4W-1D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-0
    11.9%
  • 2-0
    11.3%
  • 1-1
    10.9%
  • 2-1
    9.8%
  • 3-0
    7.0%
  • 0-0
    7.0%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Spain
DWWWWW
Austria
DWLWWW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 65%Possession35%
  • 12Shots3
  • 4On target0
  • 3Corners0
  • 4Fouls10
  • 1Offsides3
  • 0Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
9 Spain3 draw4 Austria

16 meetings · goals 43–22

  • 2009-11-18friendly5–1Spain
  • 2001-09-01wc qualifier4–0Spain
  • 2000-10-11wc qualifier1–1draw
  • 1999-09-04continental qualifier3–1Spain
  • 1999-03-27continental qualifier9–0Spain