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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Round of 32 · Match 83

PortugalvsCroatia

2 – 1Full time

Thu 2 Jul, 23:00 UTC your time · Thu 2 Jul, 19:00 GMT-4 at the venue

BMO Field, Toronto, Canada

Final result

full time
Portugal2 – 1Croatia

Portugal advance

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Portugal
  • Cristiano Ronaldogoal
  • Gonçalo Ramosgoal
Croatia
  • Ivan Perisicgoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
42.7% Portugal27.0% draw30.4% Croatia

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.16

Rating

What's driving this: Portugal have a slight rating edge (+47 Elo).

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Portugal42.7%draw27.0%Croatia30.4%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Portugal 1989.2 · Croatia 1942.3
    Portugal +47 · slight
  • FIFA ranking
    Portugal #5 · Croatia #11
  • Recent form
    Portugal 4W-1D-1L · Croatia 5W-1D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    12.8%
  • 1-0
    10.3%
  • 2-1
    8.9%
  • 0-1
    8.3%
  • 0-0
    7.9%
  • 2-0
    7.6%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Portugal
WLDWWW
Croatia
WWWDWW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 52%Possession48%
  • 6Shots10
  • 2On target6
  • 3Corners5
  • 1Fouls6
  • 1Offsides3
  • 0Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
7 Portugal2 draw1 Croatia

10 meetings · goals 19–8

  • 2024-11-18nations league1–1draw
  • 2024-09-05nations league2–1Portugal
  • 2024-06-08friendly1–2Croatia
  • 2020-11-17nations league3–2Portugal
  • 2020-09-05nations league4–1Portugal