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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Round of 32 · Match 82

BelgiumvsSenegal

3 – 2Full time

Wed 1 Jul, 20:00 UTC your time · Wed 1 Jul, 13:00 GMT-7 at the venue

Lumen Field, Seattle, United States

Final result

full time
Belgium3 – 2Senegal

Belgium advance

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Belgium
  • Youri Tielemans2 goals
  • Romelu Lukakugoal
Senegal
  • Habib Diarragoal
  • Ismaïla Sarrgoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
40.8% Belgium27.9% draw31.2% Senegal

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.13

Rating

What's driving this: Belgium have a slight rating edge (+43 Elo).

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Belgium40.8%draw27.9%Senegal31.2%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Belgium 1945.6 · Senegal 1902.5
    Belgium +43 · slight
  • FIFA ranking
    Belgium #9 · Senegal #14
  • Recent form
    Belgium 4W-2D-0L · Senegal 4W-1D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    13.3%
  • 1-0
    11.0%
  • 0-1
    9.3%
  • 0-0
    9.0%
  • 2-1
    8.5%
  • 2-0
    7.6%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Belgium
WDWDWW
Senegal
LWWWWD

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 45%Possession55%
  • 2Shots6
  • 1On target1
  • 0Corners1
  • 3Fouls2
  • 0Offsides0
  • 0Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings

No previous meetings on record.