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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Round of 32 · Match 81

United StatesvsBosnia and Herzegovina

2 – 0Full time

Thu 2 Jul, 00:00 UTC your time · Wed 1 Jul, 17:00 GMT-7 at the venue

Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, United States

Final result

full time
United States2 – 0Bosnia and Herzegovina

United States advance

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
United States
  • Folarin Balogungoal
  • Malik Tillmangoal
Bosnia and Herzegovina

none

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
60.4% United States22.9% draw16.7% Bosnia and Herzegovina

Expected goals 1.86 – 0.87

Rating

What's driving this: United States hold a decisive rating edge: +197 Elo over Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
United States60.4%draw22.9%Bosnia and Herzegovina16.7%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    United States 1825.2 · Bosnia and Herzegovina 1627.8
    United States +197 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    United States #16 · Bosnia and Herzegovina #65
  • Host advantage
    United States playing on home soil
    +0.20 goal rate
  • Recent form
    United States 4W-1D-1L · Bosnia and Herzegovina 1W-4D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-0
    11.9%
  • 2-0
    11.3%
  • 1-1
    10.9%
  • 2-1
    9.8%
  • 3-0
    7.0%
  • 0-0
    6.9%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
United States
LWDWWW
Bosnia and Herzegovina
DDDWDL

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 34%Possession66%
  • 3Shots9
  • 1On target2
  • 1Corners1
  • 3Fouls7
  • 2Offsides0
  • 0Yellow cards1
  • 1Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
2 United States1 draw0 Bosnia and Herzegovina

3 meetings · goals 5–3

  • 2021-12-18friendly1–0United States
  • 2018-01-28friendly0–0draw
  • 2013-08-14friendly4–3United States