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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Round of 32 · Match 80

EnglandvsDR Congo

2 – 1Full time

Wed 1 Jul, 16:00 UTC your time · Wed 1 Jul, 12:00 GMT-4 at the venue

Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, United States

Final result

full time
England2 – 1DR Congo

England advance

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
England
  • Harry Kane2 goals
DR Congo
  • Brian Cipengagoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
55.2% England28.7% draw16.1% DR Congo

Expected goals 1.37 – 0.61

Rating

What's driving this: England hold a decisive rating edge: +324 Elo over DR Congo.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
England55.2%draw28.7%DR Congo16.1%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    England 2035.8 · DR Congo 1711.4
    England +324 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    England #4 · DR Congo #46
  • Recent form
    England 6W-0D-0L · DR Congo 3W-2D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-0
    18.6%
  • 0-0
    14.1%
  • 2-0
    13.0%
  • 1-1
    11.9%
  • 0-1
    8.0%
  • 2-1
    7.9%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
England
WWWWWW
DR Congo
WLWDWD

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 60%Possession40%
  • 8Shots4
  • 3On target1
  • 3Corners2
  • 3Fouls6
  • 0Offsides1
  • 0Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings

No previous meetings on record.