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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Round of 32 · Match 79

MexicovsEcuador

2 – 0Full time

Wed 1 Jul, 01:00 UTC your time · Tue 30 Jun, 19:00 GMT-6 at the venue

Estadio Azteca, Mexico City, Mexico

Final result

full time
Mexico2 – 0Ecuador

Mexico advance

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Mexico
  • Julián Quiñonesgoal
  • Raúl Jiménezgoal
Ecuador

none

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
42.0% Mexico30.3% draw27.7% Ecuador

Expected goals 1.19 – 0.91

Host

What's driving this: Mexico play at home as World Cup hosts.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Mexico42.0%draw30.3%Ecuador27.7%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Mexico 1918.1 · Ecuador 1918.7
    Ecuador +1 · negligible
  • FIFA ranking
    Mexico #15 · Ecuador #23
  • Host advantage
    Mexico playing on home soil
    +0.20 goal rate
  • Recent form
    Mexico 5W-1D-0L · Ecuador 2W-4D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-0
    14.1%
  • 1-1
    13.7%
  • 0-0
    12.6%
  • 0-1
    10.7%
  • 2-0
    8.7%
  • 2-1
    7.9%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Mexico
WWWDWW
Ecuador
WDDDDW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 31%Possession69%
  • 5Shots5
  • 1On target0
  • 2Corners3
  • 5Fouls9
  • 0Offsides1
  • 0Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards1

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
14 Mexico8 draw4 Ecuador

26 meetings · goals 43–27

  • 2025-10-14friendly1–1draw
  • 2024-06-30continental finals0–0draw
  • 2022-06-05friendly0–0draw
  • 2021-10-27friendly2–3Ecuador
  • 2019-06-09friendly3–2Mexico