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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Round of 32 · Match 77

FrancevsSweden

3 – 0Full time

Tue 30 Jun, 21:00 UTC your time · Tue 30 Jun, 17:00 GMT-4 at the venue

MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, United States

Final result

full time
France3 – 0Sweden

France advance

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
France
  • Kylian Mbappé2 goals
  • Bradley Barcolagoal
Sweden

none

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
59.4% France23.3% draw17.2% Sweden

Expected goals 1.81 – 0.87

Rating

What's driving this: France hold a decisive rating edge: +350 Elo over Sweden.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
France59.4%draw23.3%Sweden17.2%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    France 2095 · Sweden 1745.4
    France +350 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    France #1 · Sweden #38
  • Recent form
    France 5W-1D-0L · Sweden 2W-1D-3L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-0
    12.1%
  • 2-0
    11.3%
  • 1-1
    11.1%
  • 2-1
    9.8%
  • 0-0
    7.2%
  • 3-0
    6.8%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
France
WWDWWW
Sweden
WWDLLL

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 53%Possession47%
  • 10Shots5
  • 6On target2
  • 3Corners1
  • 6Fouls4
  • 2Offsides0
  • 0Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
12 France5 draw6 Sweden

23 meetings · goals 34–23

  • 2020-11-17nations league4–2France
  • 2020-09-05nations league1–0France
  • 2017-06-09wc qualifier1–2Sweden
  • 2016-11-11wc qualifier2–1France
  • 2014-11-18friendly1–0France