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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Round of 32 · Match 76

BrazilvsJapan

2 – 1Full time

Mon 29 Jun, 17:00 UTC your time · Mon 29 Jun, 12:00 GMT-5 at the venue

NRG Stadium, Houston, United States

Final result

full time
Brazil2 – 1Japan

Brazil advance

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Brazil
  • Casemirogoal
  • Gabriel Martinelligoal
Japan
  • Kaishu Sanogoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
44.3% Brazil26.7% draw29.0% Japan

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.14

Rating

What's driving this: Brazil have a moderate rating edge (+97 Elo).

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Brazil44.3%draw26.7%Japan29.0%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Brazil 2046.2 · Japan 1949.2
    Brazil +97 · moderate
  • FIFA ranking
    Brazil #6 · Japan #18
  • Recent form
    Brazil 3W-1D-2L · Japan 4W-1D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    12.7%
  • 1-0
    10.5%
  • 2-1
    9.0%
  • 0-1
    8.0%
  • 2-0
    8.0%
  • 0-0
    7.8%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Brazil
LWWDLW
Japan
WLDWWW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 70%Possession30%
  • 11Shots1
  • 5On target1
  • 4Corners0
  • 3Fouls7
  • 0Offsides0
  • 1Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
11 Brazil2 draw1 Japan

14 meetings · goals 37–8

  • 2025-10-14minor tournament2–3Japan
  • 2022-06-06friendly1–0Brazil
  • 2017-11-10friendly3–1Brazil
  • 2014-10-14friendly4–0Brazil
  • 2013-06-15confederations cup3–0Brazil