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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Round of 32 · Match 75

NetherlandsvsMorocco

1 – 1Full time

Tue 30 Jun, 01:00 UTC your time · Mon 29 Jun, 19:00 GMT-6 at the venue

Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe, Mexico

Final result

full time
Netherlands1 – 1Morocco

Morocco advance on penalties (2–3)

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Netherlands
  • Cody Gakpogoal
Morocco
  • Issa Diopgoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
36.3% Netherlands31.4% draw32.3% Morocco

Expected goals 1.05 – 0.98

Rating

What's driving this: Netherlands have a slight rating edge (+38 Elo).

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Netherlands36.3%draw31.4%Morocco32.3%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Netherlands 1986.5 · Morocco 1948.7
    Netherlands +38 · slight
  • FIFA ranking
    Netherlands #7 · Morocco #8
  • Recent form
    Netherlands 4W-2D-0L · Morocco 4W-2D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    13.9%
  • 0-0
    13.6%
  • 1-0
    13.4%
  • 0-1
    12.4%
  • 2-0
    7.3%
  • 2-1
    7.1%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Netherlands
WDWWWD
Morocco
WDWWWD

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 16%Possession84%
  • 0Shots0
  • 0On target0
  • 0Corners0
  • 3Fouls2
  • 0Offsides0
  • 0Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
2 Netherlands0 draw1 Morocco

3 meetings · goals 5–4

  • 2017-05-31friendly2–1Netherlands
  • 1999-04-28friendly1–2Morocco
  • 1994-06-29wc finals2–1Netherlands