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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Round of 32 · Match 74

GermanyvsParaguay

1 – 1Full time

Mon 29 Jun, 20:30 UTC your time · Mon 29 Jun, 16:30 GMT-4 at the venue

Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, United States

Final result

full time
Germany1 – 1Paraguay

Paraguay advance on penalties (3–4)

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Germany
  • Kai Havertzgoal
Paraguay
  • Julio Encisogoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
49.0% Germany27.2% draw23.8% Paraguay

Expected goals 1.47 – 0.94

Rating

What's driving this: Germany have a moderate rating edge (+135 Elo).

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Germany49.0%draw27.2%Paraguay23.8%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Germany 1977.2 · Paraguay 1842.8
    Germany +135 · moderate
  • FIFA ranking
    Germany #10 · Paraguay #40
  • Recent form
    Germany 5W-0D-1L · Paraguay 3W-2D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-0
    12.8%
  • 1-1
    12.8%
  • 2-0
    9.7%
  • 0-0
    9.4%
  • 2-1
    9.1%
  • 0-1
    8.1%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Germany
WWWWWL
Paraguay
WDLWDW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 52%Possession48%
  • 3Shots0
  • 2On target0
  • 3Corners1
  • 3Fouls3
  • 0Offsides0
  • 2Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
1 Germany1 draw0 Paraguay

2 meetings · goals 4–3

  • 2013-08-14friendly3–3draw
  • 2002-06-15wc finals1–0Germany