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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Round of 32 · Match 73

South AfricavsCanada

0 – 1Full time

Sun 28 Jun, 19:00 UTC your time · Sun 28 Jun, 12:00 GMT-7 at the venue

SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, United States

Final result

full time
South Africa0 – 1Canada

Canada advance

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
South Africa

none

Canada
  • Stephen Eustaquiogoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
22.0% South Africa27.5% draw50.4% Canada

Expected goals 0.86 – 1.45

Rating

What's driving this: Canada hold a decisive rating edge: +211 Elo over South Africa.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
South Africa22.0%draw27.5%Canada50.4%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    South Africa 1637.5 · Canada 1848.6
    Canada +211 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    South Africa #60 · Canada #30
  • Recent form
    South Africa 3W-1D-2L · Canada 3W-2D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 0-1
    14.0%
  • 1-1
    12.8%
  • 0-2
    10.4%
  • 0-0
    10.3%
  • 1-2
    9.0%
  • 1-0
    8.2%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
South Africa
LWLWWD
Canada
DWDWWL

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 61%Possession39%
  • 3Shots5
  • 0On target3
  • 0Corners1
  • 5Fouls10
  • 1Offsides0
  • 0Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
1 South Africa0 draw0 Canada

1 meetings · goals 2–0

  • 2007-11-20friendly2–0South Africa