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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group J · Match 69

AlgeriavsAustria

3 – 3Full time

Sun 28 Jun, 02:00 UTC your time · Sat 27 Jun, 21:00 GMT-5 at the venue

Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, United States

Final result

full time
Algeria3 – 3Austria

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Algeria
  • Riyad Mahrez2 goals
  • Rafik Belghaligoal
Austria
  • Marcel Sabitzergoal
  • Marko Arnautovicgoal
  • Sasa Kalajdzicgoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
37.0% Algeria28.1% draw34.9% Austria

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.20

Even

What's driving this: The model rates these sides near-level, closer to a coin-flip.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Algeria37.0%draw28.1%Austria34.9%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Algeria 1836.2 · Austria 1842.2
    Austria +6 · negligible
  • FIFA ranking
    Algeria #28 · Austria #24
  • Recent form
    Algeria 5W-0D-1L · Austria 4W-1D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    13.4%
  • 1-0
    10.4%
  • 0-1
    10.0%
  • 0-0
    9.0%
  • 2-1
    8.1%
  • 1-2
    7.8%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Algeria
LWWWWW
Austria
DWLWWW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 71%Possession29%
  • 5Shots5
  • 3On target2
  • 0Corners1
  • 2Fouls3
  • 1Offsides0
  • 0Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
0 Algeria0 draw1 Austria

1 meetings · goals 0–2

  • 1982-06-21wc finals0–2Austria