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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group F · Match 58

TunisiavsNetherlands

1 – 3Full time

Thu 25 Jun, 23:00 UTC your time · Thu 25 Jun, 18:00 GMT-5 at the venue

Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, United States

Final result

full time
Tunisia1 – 3Netherlands

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Tunisia
  • Hazem Mastourigoal
Netherlands
  • Brian Brobbeygoal
  • Jan Paul van Heckegoal
  • Ellyes SkhiriOG

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
20.3% Tunisia27.1% draw52.5% Netherlands

Expected goals 0.82 – 1.48

Rating

What's driving this: Netherlands hold a decisive rating edge: +258 Elo over Tunisia.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Tunisia20.3%draw27.1%Netherlands52.5%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Tunisia 1728.6 · Netherlands 1986.5
    Netherlands +258 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Tunisia #44 · Netherlands #7
  • Recent form
    Tunisia 3W-2D-1L · Netherlands 4W-2D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 0-1
    14.5%
  • 1-1
    12.5%
  • 0-2
    11.0%
  • 0-0
    10.4%
  • 1-2
    9.0%
  • 1-0
    7.8%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Tunisia
DDLWWW
Netherlands
WDWWWD

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 27%Possession73%
  • 6Shots8
  • 3On target4
  • 3Corners3
  • 6Fouls6
  • 1Offsides1
  • 0Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
0 Tunisia2 draw1 Netherlands

3 meetings · goals 3–7

  • 2009-02-11friendly1–1draw
  • 1994-01-19friendly2–2draw
  • 1978-04-05friendly0–4Netherlands