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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group F · Match 57

JapanvsSweden

1 – 1Full time

Thu 25 Jun, 23:00 UTC your time · Thu 25 Jun, 18:00 GMT-5 at the venue

AT&T Stadium, Arlington, United States

Final result

full time
Japan1 – 1Sweden

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Japan
  • Daizen Maedagoal
Sweden
  • Anthony Elangagoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
52.5% Japan24.9% draw22.6% Sweden

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.02

Rating

What's driving this: Japan hold a decisive rating edge: +204 Elo over Sweden.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Japan52.5%draw24.9%Sweden22.6%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Japan 1949.2 · Sweden 1745.4
    Japan +204 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Japan #18 · Sweden #38
  • Recent form
    Japan 4W-1D-1L · Sweden 2W-1D-3L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    11.9%
  • 1-0
    10.9%
  • 2-1
    9.7%
  • 2-0
    9.5%
  • 0-0
    7.0%
  • 0-1
    6.5%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Japan
WLDWWW
Sweden
WWDLLL

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 49%Possession51%
  • 4Shots9
  • 1On target4
  • 1Corners5
  • 9Fouls5
  • 2Offsides1
  • 1Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
0 Japan3 draw1 Sweden

4 meetings · goals 4–5

  • 2002-05-25friendly1–1draw
  • 1997-02-13minor tournament0–1Sweden
  • 1996-02-22minor tournament1–1draw
  • 1995-06-10friendly2–2draw