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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group E · Match 56

EcuadorvsGermany

2 – 1Full time

Thu 25 Jun, 20:00 UTC your time · Thu 25 Jun, 16:00 GMT-4 at the venue

MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, United States

Final result

full time
Ecuador2 – 1Germany

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Ecuador
  • Gonzalo Platagoal
  • Nilson Angulogoal
Germany
  • Leroy Sanégoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
29.0% Ecuador28.2% draw42.8% Germany

Expected goals 1.05 – 1.33

Rating

What's driving this: Germany have a slight rating edge (+59 Elo).

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Ecuador29.0%draw28.2%Germany42.8%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Ecuador 1918.7 · Germany 1977.2
    Germany +59 · slight
  • FIFA ranking
    Ecuador #23 · Germany #10
  • Recent form
    Ecuador 2W-4D-0L · Germany 5W-0D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    13.3%
  • 0-1
    11.9%
  • 0-0
    9.6%
  • 1-0
    9.3%
  • 1-2
    8.6%
  • 0-2
    8.2%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Ecuador
WDDDDW
Germany
WWWWWL

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 40%Possession60%
  • 5Shots4
  • 2On target1
  • 2Corners1
  • 6Fouls7
  • 0Offsides0
  • 2Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
0 Ecuador0 draw2 Germany

2 meetings · goals 2–7

  • 2013-05-29friendly2–4Germany
  • 2006-06-20wc finals0–3Germany