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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group A · Match 54

South AfricavsSouth Korea

1 – 0Full time

Thu 25 Jun, 01:00 UTC your time · Wed 24 Jun, 19:00 GMT-6 at the venue

Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe, Mexico

Final result

full time
South Africa1 – 0South Korea

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
South Africa
  • Thapelo Masekogoal
South Korea

none

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
23.4% South Africa29.1% draw47.5% South Korea

Expected goals 0.84 – 1.32

Rating

What's driving this: South Korea hold a decisive rating edge: +234 Elo over South Africa.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
South Africa23.4%draw29.1%South Korea47.5%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    South Africa 1637.5 · South Korea 1871.9
    South Korea +234 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    South Africa #60 · South Korea #25
  • Recent form
    South Africa 3W-1D-2L · South Korea 3W-3D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 0-1
    14.8%
  • 1-1
    13.2%
  • 0-0
    11.9%
  • 0-2
    10.0%
  • 1-0
    9.3%
  • 1-2
    8.5%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
South Africa
LWLWWD
South Korea
WWDDDW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 25%Possession75%
  • 3Shots4
  • 1On target2
  • 0Corners4
  • 5Fouls5
  • 0Offsides0
  • 1Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings

No previous meetings on record.