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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group A · Match 53

Czech RepublicvsMexico

0 – 3Full time

Thu 25 Jun, 01:00 UTC your time · Wed 24 Jun, 19:00 GMT-6 at the venue

Estadio Azteca, Mexico City, Mexico

Final result

full time
Czech Republic0 – 3Mexico

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Czech Republic

none

Mexico
  • Álvaro Fidalgogoal
  • Julián Quiñonesgoal
  • Mateo Chávezgoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
13.4% Czech Republic24.1% draw62.5% Mexico

Expected goals 0.64 – 1.70

Rating

What's driving this: Mexico hold a decisive rating edge: +158 Elo over Czech Republic.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Czech Republic13.4%draw24.1%Mexico62.5%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Czech Republic 1760.2 · Mexico 1918.1
    Mexico +158 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Czech Republic #41 · Mexico #15
  • Host advantage
    Mexico playing on home soil
    +0.20 goal rate
  • Altitude
    Czech Republic concede ~2.2 km in Mexico City
    -0.38 goal rate
  • Recent form
    Czech Republic 2W-3D-1L · Mexico 5W-1D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 0-1
    16.0%
  • 0-2
    13.9%
  • 1-1
    10.8%
  • 0-0
    10.0%
  • 1-2
    8.9%
  • 0-3
    7.8%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Czech Republic
DDWLDW
Mexico
WWWDWW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 58%Possession42%
  • 7Shots6
  • 1On target4
  • 5Corners1
  • 4Fouls6
  • 1Offsides0
  • 0Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
1 Czech Republic0 draw0 Mexico

1 meetings · goals 2–1

  • 2000-02-08minor tournament2–1Czech Republic