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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group B · Match 52

Bosnia and HerzegovinavsQatar

3 – 1Full time

Wed 24 Jun, 19:00 UTC your time · Wed 24 Jun, 12:00 GMT-7 at the venue

Lumen Field, Seattle, United States

Final result

full time
Bosnia and Herzegovina3 – 1Qatar

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • Ermin Mahmicgoal
  • Kerim Alajbegovicgoal
  • Mahmud AbunadaOG
Qatar
  • Hassan Al Haidosgoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
35.1% Bosnia and Herzegovina27.8% draw37.1% Qatar

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.27

Even

What's driving this: The model rates these sides near-level, closer to a coin-flip.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Bosnia and Herzegovina35.1%draw27.8%Qatar37.1%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Bosnia and Herzegovina 1627.8 · Qatar 1621.6
    Bosnia and Herzegovina +6 · negligible
  • FIFA ranking
    Bosnia and Herzegovina #65 · Qatar #55
  • Recent form
    Bosnia and Herzegovina 1W-4D-1L · Qatar 3W-1D-2L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    13.2%
  • 0-1
    10.0%
  • 1-0
    9.7%
  • 0-0
    8.6%
  • 1-2
    8.2%
  • 2-1
    7.9%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Bosnia and Herzegovina
DDDWDL
Qatar
WDLWLW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 50%Possession50%
  • 5Shots5
  • 2On target2
  • 1Corners4
  • 3Fouls8
  • 1Offsides1
  • 1Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
0 Bosnia and Herzegovina1 draw1 Qatar

2 meetings · goals 1–3

  • 2010-08-10friendly1–1draw
  • 2000-01-24friendly0–2Qatar