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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group B · Match 51

SwitzerlandvsCanada

2 – 1Full time

Wed 24 Jun, 19:00 UTC your time · Wed 24 Jun, 12:00 GMT-7 at the venue

BC Place, Vancouver, Canada

Final result

full time
Switzerland2 – 1Canada

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Switzerland
  • Johan Manzambigoal
  • Rubén Vargasgoal
Canada
  • Promise Davidgoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
33.8% Switzerland25.9% draw40.3% Canada

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.48

Host

What's driving this: Canada play at home as World Cup hosts.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Switzerland33.8%draw25.9%Canada40.3%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Switzerland 1916.3 · Canada 1848.6
    Switzerland +68 · slight
  • FIFA ranking
    Switzerland #19 · Canada #30
  • Host advantage
    Canada playing on home soil
    +0.20 goal rate
  • Recent form
    Switzerland 4W-2D-0L · Canada 3W-2D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    12.2%
  • 1-2
    8.8%
  • 0-1
    8.5%
  • 2-1
    7.9%
  • 1-0
    7.6%
  • 0-2
    6.6%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Switzerland
DWDWWW
Canada
DWDWWL

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 40%Possession60%
  • 2Shots8
  • 2On target4
  • 0Corners6
  • 8Fouls8
  • 0Offsides0
  • 0Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
0 Switzerland0 draw1 Canada

1 meetings · goals 1–3

  • 2002-05-15friendly1–3Canada