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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group C · Match 50

MoroccovsHaiti

4 – 2Full time

Wed 24 Jun, 22:00 UTC your time · Wed 24 Jun, 18:00 GMT-4 at the venue

Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, United States

Final result

full time
Morocco4 – 2Haiti

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Morocco
  • Achraf Hakimigoal
  • Gessime Yassinegoal
  • Ismael Saibarigoal
  • Soufiane Rahimigoal
Haiti
  • Wilson Isidorgoal
  • Yassine BounouOG

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
55.4% Morocco26.2% draw18.4% Haiti

Expected goals 1.56 – 0.78

Rating

What's driving this: Morocco hold a decisive rating edge: +294 Elo over Haiti.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Morocco55.4%draw26.2%Haiti18.4%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Morocco 1948.7 · Haiti 1654.5
    Morocco +294 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Morocco #8 · Haiti #83
  • Recent form
    Morocco 4W-2D-0L · Haiti 3W-2D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-0
    14.6%
  • 1-1
    12.1%
  • 2-0
    11.7%
  • 0-0
    10.0%
  • 2-1
    9.2%
  • 0-1
    7.2%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Morocco
WDWWWD
Haiti
WWLWDD

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 72%Possession28%
  • 9Shots5
  • 4On target1
  • 6Corners1
  • 7Fouls9
  • 2Offsides0
  • 0Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings

No previous meetings on record.