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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group K · Match 48

ColombiavsDR Congo

1 – 0Full time

Wed 24 Jun, 02:00 UTC your time · Tue 23 Jun, 20:00 GMT-6 at the venue

Estadio Akron, Zapopan, Mexico

Final result

full time
Colombia1 – 0DR Congo

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Colombia
  • Daniel Muñozgoal
DR Congo

none

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
56.0% Colombia29.3% draw14.7% DR Congo

Expected goals 1.33 – 0.54

Rating

What's driving this: Colombia hold a decisive rating edge: +275 Elo over DR Congo.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Colombia56.0%draw29.3%DR Congo14.7%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Colombia 1985.9 · DR Congo 1711.4
    Colombia +275 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Colombia #13 · DR Congo #46
  • Altitude
    DR Congo concede ~1.6 km in Zapopan
    -0.26 goal rate
  • Recent form
    Colombia 2W-3D-1L · DR Congo 3W-2D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-0
    20.2%
  • 0-0
    15.8%
  • 2-0
    13.7%
  • 1-1
    11.4%
  • 0-1
    8.0%
  • 2-1
    7.3%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Colombia
WWDDDL
DR Congo
WLWDWD

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 60%Possession40%
  • 6Shots5
  • 3On target1
  • 3Corners2
  • 8Fouls10
  • 4Offsides0
  • 2Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings

No previous meetings on record.