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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group K · Match 47

PortugalvsUzbekistan

5 – 0Full time

Tue 23 Jun, 17:00 UTC your time · Tue 23 Jun, 12:00 GMT-5 at the venue

NRG Stadium, Houston, United States

Final result

full time
Portugal5 – 0Uzbekistan

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Portugal
  • Cristiano Ronaldo2 goals
  • Nuno Mendesgoal
  • Rafael Leãogoal
  • Abduvohid NematovOG
Uzbekistan

none

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
51.7% Portugal27.2% draw21.1% Uzbekistan

Expected goals 1.48 – 0.85

Rating

What's driving this: Portugal hold a decisive rating edge: +214 Elo over Uzbekistan.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Portugal51.7%draw27.2%Uzbekistan21.1%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Portugal 1989.2 · Uzbekistan 1775.2
    Portugal +214 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Portugal #5 · Uzbekistan #50
  • Recent form
    Portugal 4W-1D-1L · Uzbekistan 3W-2D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-0
    14.1%
  • 1-1
    12.6%
  • 2-0
    10.7%
  • 0-0
    10.1%
  • 2-1
    9.0%
  • 0-1
    7.9%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Portugal
WLDWWW
Uzbekistan
WDDWWL

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 66%Possession34%
  • 8Shots4
  • 5On target1
  • 2Corners2
  • 6Fouls8
  • 2Offsides2
  • 1Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings

No previous meetings on record.