PresairaPresairaWorld Cup 2026
ForecastMatchesGroupsPredictPlayers

An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

  • Forecast
  • Matches
  • Groups
  • Predict
  • Players
Group stage · Group L · Match 46

PanamavsCroatia

0 – 1Full time

Tue 23 Jun, 23:00 UTC your time · Tue 23 Jun, 19:00 GMT-4 at the venue

BMO Field, Toronto, Canada

Final result

full time
Panama0 – 1Croatia

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Panama

none

Croatia
  • Ante Budimirgoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
26.4% Panama26.8% draw46.8% Croatia

Expected goals 1.05 – 1.49

Rating

What's driving this: Croatia have a moderate rating edge (+120 Elo).

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Panama26.4%draw26.8%Croatia46.8%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Panama 1822.1 · Croatia 1942.3
    Croatia +120 · moderate
  • FIFA ranking
    Panama #33 · Croatia #11
  • Recent form
    Panama 3W-3D-0L · Croatia 5W-1D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    12.7%
  • 0-1
    11.4%
  • 1-2
    9.2%
  • 0-2
    8.7%
  • 0-0
    8.3%
  • 1-0
    7.9%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Panama
WWDWDD
Croatia
WWWDWW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 50%Possession50%
  • 7Shots4
  • 1On target2
  • 7Corners1
  • 10Fouls7
  • 1Offsides2
  • 1Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings

No previous meetings on record.