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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group L · Match 45

EnglandvsGhana

0 – 0Full time

Tue 23 Jun, 20:00 UTC your time · Tue 23 Jun, 16:00 GMT-4 at the venue

Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, United States

Final result

full time
England0 – 0Ghana

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
63.6% England23.0% draw13.4% Ghana

Expected goals 1.79 – 0.68

Rating

What's driving this: England hold a decisive rating edge: +403 Elo over Ghana.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
England63.6%draw23.0%Ghana13.4%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    England 2035.8 · Ghana 1633.1
    England +403 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    England #4 · Ghana #74
  • Recent form
    England 6W-0D-0L · Ghana 5W-1D-0L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-0
    14.8%
  • 2-0
    13.5%
  • 1-1
    10.6%
  • 2-1
    9.2%
  • 0-0
    8.8%
  • 3-0
    8.1%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
England
WWWWWW
Ghana
WWWDWW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 79%Possession21%
  • 13Shots2
  • 3On target1
  • 6Corners1
  • 5Fouls16
  • 1Offsides1
  • 0Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
0 England1 draw0 Ghana

1 meetings · goals 1–1

  • 2011-03-29friendly1–1draw