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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group J · Match 44

JordanvsAlgeria

1 – 2Full time

Tue 23 Jun, 03:00 UTC your time · Mon 22 Jun, 20:00 GMT-7 at the venue

Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, United States

Final result

full time
Jordan1 – 2Algeria

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Jordan
  • Nizar Al Rashdangoal
Algeria
  • Amine Gouirigoal
  • Nadir Benboualigoal

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
27.6% Jordan26.2% draw46.1% Algeria

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.53

Rating

What's driving this: Algeria have a moderate rating edge (+116 Elo).

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Jordan27.6%draw26.2%Algeria46.1%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Jordan 1720.3 · Algeria 1836.2
    Algeria +116 · moderate
  • FIFA ranking
    Jordan #63 · Algeria #28
  • Recent form
    Jordan 2W-3D-1L · Algeria 5W-0D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-1
    12.5%
  • 0-1
    10.4%
  • 1-2
    9.2%
  • 0-2
    8.2%
  • 1-0
    7.6%
  • 0-0
    7.4%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Jordan
LWDWDD
Algeria
LWWWWW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 31%Possession69%
  • 2Shots13
  • 1On target6
  • 1Corners7
  • 8Fouls1
  • 0Offsides0
  • 1Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
0 Jordan1 draw1 Algeria

2 meetings · goals 1–7

  • 2004-05-30friendly1–1draw
  • 1974-09-29minor tournament0–6Algeria