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An independent, calibrated AI forecast. Not affiliated with FIFA or any official World Cup organisation.

For interest and analysis only: not betting advice.

Methodology · how the forecast is built.

Built by Mohammed Ehab Elnomany · probabilistic, not an oracle.

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Group stage · Group J · Match 43

ArgentinavsAustria

2 – 0Full time

Mon 22 Jun, 17:00 UTC your time · Mon 22 Jun, 12:00 GMT-5 at the venue

AT&T Stadium, Arlington, United States

Final result

full time
Argentina2 – 0Austria

Final score. The model's pre-match prediction is shown below for reference; the result now feeds the forecast for the rest of the tournament.

Goals and cards

scorers and bookings
Argentina
  • Lionel Messi2 goals
Austria

none

Pre-match prediction

pre-match odds
57.0% Argentina25.6% draw17.4% Austria

Expected goals 1.60 – 0.76

Rating

What's driving this: Argentina hold a decisive rating edge: +303 Elo over Austria.

Win probability over time

across published runs
100%75%50%25%0%first forecastlatest
Argentina57.0%draw25.6%Austria17.4%

Each point is a forecast published during the tournament; the series ends at kickoff and does not change afterward.

Why: factor breakdown

every clause from real data
  • Elo rating
    Argentina 2144.7 · Austria 1842.2
    Argentina +303 · large
  • FIFA ranking
    Argentina #3 · Austria #24
  • Recent form
    Argentina 4W-1D-1L · Austria 4W-1D-1L

Most-likely scorelines

pre-match · Dixon-Coles
  • 1-0
    14.7%
  • 2-0
    12.0%
  • 1-1
    11.8%
  • 0-0
    9.8%
  • 2-1
    9.2%
  • 0-1
    6.8%

Recent form

last 6 competitive
Argentina
LWDWWW
Austria
DWLWWW

Match stats

from fotmob
  • 48%Possession52%
  • 9Shots4
  • 3On target1
  • 1Corners1
  • 5Fouls8
  • 1Offsides0
  • 2Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Display only. Team stats never feed the model or the result.

Head to head

historical meetings
1 Argentina1 draw0 Austria

2 meetings · goals 6–2

  • 1990-05-03friendly1–1draw
  • 1980-05-21friendly5–1Argentina